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Ignored but Inevitable: The Rise of Crypto in Pakistan’s Shadow Economy

Crypto

Pakistanis have invested between $20–25 billion in crypto despite a national ban, placing the country eighth in global rankings for crypto activity, according to Chainalysis and the Asian Development Bank.

This contradiction between official policy and on-ground reality framed a session titled “The Future of Cryptocurrency in Pakistan” at the Pakistan Business Council’s Dialogue on the Economy conference, held at Serena Hotel, Islamabad. The session, led by Dr. Asad Samar, CEO of Square Point Trading Group, focused on how cryptocurrencies work, their evolution, and the regulatory challenges and opportunities within the local context.

The discussion began with an overview of cryptocurrency’s origins, explaining that the idea behind it was to enable payments directly between individuals without relying on banks or other central intermediaries. Blockchain, or hash chain technology, was introduced as a way to record transactions in linked blocks of data that cannot be altered once written. This ledger is distributed, allowing all participants to verify the history of transactions.

The role of miners was also highlighted, as they are responsible for linking new blocks to the existing chain by performing computationally expensive work. In return, miners are rewarded in cryptocurrency. The concept of scarcity was also discussed, with a key example being Bitcoin, whose total supply is capped at 21 million coins, ensuring its long-term value.

However, it was noted that cryptocurrencies have evolved far beyond their original purpose as a payment mechanism. Today, there are thousands of coins with different functions, from improving existing protocols to powering in-game tokens or even tokenizing real-world assets like property. The emergence of these use cases has further diversified the crypto space, making it more than just a financial instrument but also a technological tool with applications across industries.

The rise of cryptocurrencies has largely been driven by price movements. It was pointed out that Bitcoin, which was priced between $500 and $700 in 2016, has since skyrocketed to over $100,000 per coin. This surge has contributed to a market capitalisation in the trillions of dollars and established crypto trading as a major global activity. As a result, retail investors and institutional players alike have become more interested in cryptocurrencies, driving volumes on exchanges that now exceed traditional finance in some instances.

“Even though the market is experiencing a cooling, we can not, and probably should not forget that it is still at a rate so high that it would seem like science fiction even a few years ago. Also, we need to keep in mind that a healthy market needs the occasional correction to bring overbought assets back to their ‘true’ value. I would be more curious to see if this is confirmation that the cryptocurrency market and its participants are maturing, making it act more like their equity or precious metals equivalents. Because if that is true, i.e. that this extremely liquid market has reached maturity, then it will likely be easier to forecast and analyse.”

Around 50 crypto exchanges operate worldwide, with a small group handling most of the trading volume. High-frequency traders, statistical arbitrage funds, and professional market makers are major players, using advanced strategies to profit from small price differences across exchanges. These sophisticated strategies involve arbitraging between exchanges, utilizing fast-paced algorithms to exploit minor price discrepancies before others can react. The trading activity has become so large that it now rivals traditional financial markets, with daily volumes running into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

As the market matures, more regulated platforms are playing a role in helping investors navigate the crypto space. For example, platforms like Exness have expanded their offerings to include access to cryptocurrency markets, allowing both individual traders and institutional investors to engage with the rapidly growing sector. This shift is part of the broader trend where traditional financial institutions and well-established trading platforms are increasingly adding cryptocurrency to their portfolios, ensuring that the sector gains further legitimacy.

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